Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
